What happened?

[tom_454]

Wow, I take some unexpected time off from pinball over the summer and the market has just crashed.
There are over 40 pins for sale with an asking value of over $500k listed on this site alone. In over 16 years in the hobby I have never seen this before? Is a correction here at last? What do you think this is going to do to the hobby?

Game	List Price
Addams Family	$10,900​
Alien LV	Not Listed
Alien SV	$9,250​
Attack From Mars (remake)	$13,500​
Avengers LE	$9,000​
Bally Lost World	$2,750​
Black Knight LE	$16,000​
Bond LE	$17,500​
Bond LE	$18,000​
Cactur Canyon LE	$16,500​
Circus Voltaire	$12,000​
Elvira EHOH	$15,700​
F14 Tomcat	$3,900​
Foo Fighters (Prem)	$13,500​
Foo Fighters LE	$19,000​
Godzille (Prem)	$13,750​
Godzille (Prem)	$13,500​
Godzille (Pro)	$8,500​
Hot Wheels	$8,900​
Houdini	$9,000​
Iron Maiden (Prem)	$13,500​
Iron Maiden LE	$18,000​
Lethal Weapon 3	$4,750​
Lord of The Rings	$14,750​
Mandalorian Premium	$11,000​
Monopoly	$7,200​
Monster Bash SE	$13,500​
Popeye	$6,900​
RFM + SWEP1	$9,500​
RoboCop	$4,500​
Rush LE	$16,500​
Rush Pro	$9,800​
Scooby Doo CE	$13,250​
Star Wars LE	$15,000​
Stranger Things (Prem)	$16,000​
Stranger Things (Pro)	$11,000​
SWEP1	$5,400​
Toy Story 4	$14,000​
Tron Pro	$11,000​
Twilight Zone	$14,000​
Twilight Zone	$12,000​
Wonka LE	$13,750​
WOZ YBR	$21,500​
Xmen LE - Wolverine	$9,000​

 

[roar]

I think the manufactures finally found the ceiling… the scalpers for the most part have seen their quick buck opportunities disappear and we are settling into a new normal at higher prices where NIB buyers will be paying a premium to be the first to open the box and are looking at taking a small loss if they want to move on from a new game quickly. Old games imo are still over priced and I wouldn’t say we are in a correction phase until old game prices start dropping or pinball manufactures start reducing MSRP and I personally don’t see either of those happening anytime soon, at least the MSRP dropping part. What people pay for old WMS/Bally or even pre-Spike 2 Stern ever ceases to amaze me. So I’d say new norm as opposed to correction.

 

[ZoomZoomBoomBoom]

I think it has nothing to do with pinball really. The economy is absolutely tanking in every industry I know of.
The cost of living in Canada has become too high, so everybody's expendable income has essentially vanished.

 

[Pins4ever]

This is just the first step in a major correction. Over supply....then prices start to drop and fast. No new people buying machines will make things even worse as current owners have no room for pins.

Not to turn this into a political thread but we can thank our federal government for its war on the working middle class with its ridiculous array of inflationary taxes.
Look at the big picture and this is only just starting.

 

[tom_454]

I think the manufactures finally found the ceiling… the scalpers for the most part have seen their quick buck opportunities disappear and we are settling into a new normal at higher prices where NIB buyers will be paying a premium to be the first to open the box and are looking at taking a small loss if they want to move on from a new game quickly. Old games imo are still over priced and I wouldn’t say we are in a correction phase until old game prices start dropping or pinball manufactures start reducing MSRP and I personally don’t see either of those happening anytime soon, at least the MSRP dropping part. What people pay for old WMS/Bally or even pre-Spike 2 Stern ever ceases to amaze me. So I’d say new norm as opposed to correction.

With respect to the older games - if you look at the games that are for sale they are almost all newer, expensive models. The older Bally/Williams seem to be few and far between - perhaps collectors are holding on to them and that limits supply which may keep prices higher on those. TZ does seem to be losing some lustre but that is probably because it’s depth is rivalled by many newer machines.

Going to be interesting for sure.

 

[MrMikeman]

Seeing a lot of folks pulling their ads because there’s no interest at the asking prices. I wonder what the thought process is. Prices aren’t going to bounce back in a few months and the market will keep getting worse. Sellers will take a greater hit by waiting, unless they actually plan on waiting many years.

I think that trades will be the way ahead for a while, unless it’s sellers trying to get out of the hobby, in which case they will not be happy with the much smaller return they will get.

The days of threatening to sell south of the border are coming to an end. Just like most of us here would be weary of buying games sight unseen from an unknown seller in the US, they feel the same way about buying from us. Now that pinballs are more mainstream, there’s so much scamming going on that it hurts legitimate sales.

 

[GUARD]

Their used prices have remained pretty steady though, so they might be tempted by the double whammy of our falling prices and disastrous dollar.

 

[Hershy]

This is just the first step in a major correction. Over supply....then prices start to drop and fast. No new people buying machines will make things even worse as current owners have no room for pins.

Not to turn this into a political thread but we can thank our federal government for its war on the working middle class with its ridiculous array of inflationary taxes.
Look at the big picture and this is only just starting.

It’s as if inflation isn’t happening in many countries around the world. Easy to blame the current federal government and I’d agree if we were the only country in this position.

I should also point out that twice in the past few months I’ve been at food stores in the States and their food prices were equal or more expensive than ours except in U.S. dollars.

The drop in ability to pay higher prices for pins is a problem on both sides of the border.

 

[Resteth]

Covid measures and the ridiculous free-money spike during the pandemic turbocharged the already heated pin market. NIB prices seemed to spike faster than used and skewed motivations for both selling and buying, ie: flipping.
Manufacturers have marketing departments and they didn't miss a price rise beat.

Now, especially with rising interest rates and increasing inflation, there is the to be expected hangover, slowly at first but I see it's picking up pace. Pins are sitting longer on the market and the for sale list on PR and Pinside has noticeably increased and with price reductions. Decent EM's seem to be on the price rise though (moving down the price to value ladder seems to be an emerging trend).

When I saw very poorly rated games listed at high (old NIB prices) I knew it was time to step out of the market but the real tell for me was the EHOH signature edition. I'd love to sit with Cassandra on that red velvet couch but upwards of $40,000 asking for a bit of extra shine and a swatch of that couch cloth...umm no.

 

[Pins4ever]

It’s as if inflation isn’t happening in many countries around the world. Easy to blame the current federal government and I’d agree if we were the only country in this position.

I should also point out that twice in the past few months I’ve been at food stores in the States and their food prices were equal or more expensive than ours except in U.S. dollars.

The drop in ability to pay higher prices for pins is a problem on both sides of the border.

Yes you just proved my point. The US is also run by a leftist government like ours altho not quite as radical. That is hell bent on using so called climate change as a reason to tax us to death and stifle our economy with inflation tactics.

 

[MrMikeman]

Hey noob, politics have no place in this hobby discussion forum, regardless of which way you lean.

 

[kool1]

I think it has nothing to do with pinball really. The economy is absolutely tanking in every industry I know of.
The cost of living in Canada has become too high, so everybody's expendable income has essentially vanished.

^^ This for sure ^^

Add in

1. High borrowing costs
2. Post covid travel boom
3. Slowing economy
4. Increase in NIB pin supply and NIB titles in 2023

 

[kool1]

Seeing a lot of folks pulling their ads because there’s no interest at the asking prices. I wonder what the thought process is. Prices aren’t going to bounce back in a few months and the market will keep getting worse. Sellers will take a greater hit by waiting, unless they actually plan on waiting many years.

I see a lot of ads still at 2021/2022 prices - used market has all come down.

If you are buying new it's fine though - get less but you will pay less also!

 

[Pins4ever]

Darn right...it's a free country or at least it was. We need people to wake up a little. As far as being a "noob" as you point out Mr Mike...keep taking it ...since your a "seasoned" Ottawa guy.

 

[Smokezz]

Hope pin rev doesn't turn into pinside here where your not aloud to talk about politics. Why can't we talk pins and politics? It's what makes our country move. My business was booming under Stephen harper.. And that's when I bought a ton of pins! Harper was top of his class in economics. Some people prefer a drama teacher, I just have to shake my head. My pin purchases definitely dropped around 2018.
I was lucky enough to thank Mr Harper personally at dinner party, still boggles my mind how he kept Canada out of the great crash of 2008.

I hope it does. There are plenty of places to blather on about politics.

Darn right...it's a free country or at least it was. We need people to wake up a little. As far as being a "noob" as you point out Mr Mike...keep taking it ...since your a "seasoned" Ottawa guy.

Yeah it is... that doesn't mean every forum, every Facebook group, every subreddit is a free for all.

 

[tom_454]

It will be interesting to see what happens to the hobby. When I started 16 years ago I was perfectly happy with buying,playing and selling pins and going in the hole $1.5k per year given that pins were between $1200 to 3000 for the most part (MM and MB the exception). And new pins weren’t really even an option as Stern was struggling and not exactly putting out the hits unlike today. That was just the cost of the entertainment. Fast forward to today and a NIB pin selling for 12k+ and the market tanking - well I am not sure how many collectors can risk those losses when buying multiple pins per year. So once the wealthier collectors stop buying (no room and can’t sell used) that will have a trickle down affect to be sure. This will have a big impact upon the manufacturers and they are going to have to adapt. But how do you think they will do that? More cost cutting, slow down the production line, fewer models? Will they have to focus more on operators/barcodes again?

I really want to see the hobby remain active but I think this is going to hurt.

 

[tom_454]

If anyone wants to move to one of those countries with really low taxes:

https://wealthmanagementcanada.com/... Canada rank in taxes?,you're a higher earner.

you are more than welcome to move there. But as they say - you get what u pay for ..
or don’t.

this is a pinball forum. There are lots of political and religious forums out there.

 

[Corrie]

I agree this is related to macro conditions as much as it is to conditions in the pinball community.

It's just like houses, I see tons up for sale right now because prices appear to have settled around all time highs and people are feeling the crunch of a bad economy. Better to get out now when prices are still high than wait until the economy really crashes and the market really slows down.

This could be the start of a downward spiral in many industries as the number of people needing to get out ends up eclisping demand and then it's a race to the bottom.

 

[heinekenlvr]

I agree this is related to macro conditions as much as it is to conditions in the pinball community.

It's just like houses, I see tons up for sale right now because prices appear to have settled around all time highs and people are feeling the crunch of a bad economy. Better to get out now when prices are still high than wait until the economy really crashes and the market really slows down.

This could be the start of a downward spiral in many industries as the number of people needing to get out ends up eclisping demand and then it's a race to the bottom.

The problem is if you own a house and you want out...where are you going to go? The supply for housing is not great which tends to keep prices up. You have to live somewhere.

 

[BMHouze]

And then when you do try to sell the nitpicking, price police show up, add some lowballers.

It doesn't seem like fun at all.

I plan to access my homes value as a development property (due to its location) before I start any renovations that may just be worthless later.